In reviewing Apple's fiscal year results for the 12-month period ended in September and working with the non-GAAP "adjusted" numbers which reflect all iPhone revenue in the quarters in which the units were sold rather than Apple's reported GAAP results that defer revenue recognition on iPhone sales over the anticipated two-year economic life of each unit I arrive, at the following results:
Fiscal Year 2009 revenue of $42.85 billion (based on Apple's published statements)
Net income of $8.75 billion
EPS of about $9.56 based on 915 million fully diluted shares outstanding at the end of the year
These results are no doubt impressive. During the fiscal year Apple shipped 20.731 million iPhone units, 10.393 million Macs and 55.007 million iPods including the popular iPod touch.
Using non-GAAP "adjusted" numbers as the basis for a FY 2010 revenue forecast and factoring in a 110% growth in iPhone unit sales for the fiscal year as some have suggested, I arrive at 43.5 million units sold and "adjusted" revenue of over $26 billion for iPhone-related revenue activity. Estimating 20% Mac unit sales growth at a constant FY 2009 ASP (average selling price), 5% growth in iPod unit sales at a similar constant ASP and 10% growth in Other/Non-iPhone revenue, I arrive at a total "adjusted" revenue forecast for the fiscal year of about $60 billion in revenue, an increase over FY '09 of over $17 billion or 40% increase in revenue for the fiscal year.
Obviously iPhone revenue is the catalyst for explosive growth in FY 2010 and I will adjust my projections following the first fiscal quarter's results and the announcement of the new Apple tablet at end of January.
Following formal announcement of the new device, projections of Mac unit sales growth will need to be revised and rising sales of the iPod touch will impact iPod revenue in the fiscal year. This preliminary revenue projection is a rough estimate based on current revenue trends.
Wanna take a guess at the EPS number if revenue hits your target?
ReplyDeleteI'm working on an eps estimate now. Because fixed costs are already covered and some variables costs don't rise proportionately with revenue growth, the eps gains will exceed the rate of growth in revenue.
ReplyDeleteA rough "back of the envelope" estimate puts eps at or above $14 per share. A more sophisticated estimate is to come.
ReplyDeleteHey that would put aapl at $400.;) The question is when will WS see what you are predicting. 40% increase in income is quite aggressive. I have a hard time seeing 40 million iPhones, given limitations in penetration due to the exclusive ATT contract. What numbers to you see on the Mac side?
ReplyDelete