Monday, April 12, 2010

AAPL 2nd Fiscal Quarter Estimate - The Numbers



My estimate of Apple's 2nd fiscal quarter performance is based in part on continuing strength of Mac sales, in particular the popular iMac. I expect the iMac to be an industry standout  in the March quarter for a desktop PC, regardless of make or operating system. Though the Mac portable line is expected to be refreshed this week, sales of the current models will have more than held their own in the March quarter. I estimate the March quarter will deliver about a 36% gain in Mac unit sales in year-over-year comparisons.
The iPod line of digital music players, led by the iPhone OS-based iPod touch, will see only a slight year-over-year decline in unit sales. The iPod line will have benefitted from strong post-holiday sales in first few weeks of January.
I estimate iPhone units sales fell just shy of doubling the prior year's sales performance with strong overseas sales providing the greatest lift in unit sales growth performance. 
In all, I expect total revenue of just over $12.8 billion, operating income of about $3.645 billion, net income of about $2.586 billion and earnings per share of $2.80 based on 924 million diluted shares in the tally.




Mac units

3,010,000
Mac Revenue

3,984,086,853



iPhone Units

7,450,000
iPhone revenue

4,756,335,126



iPod Units

10,800,000
iPhone revenue

1,746,437,768



Other

2,325,000,000



Total Revenue

12,811,859,748



COGS

-7,687,115,849



Gross margin - 40%

5,124,743,899



Operating Expenses:


Research and Development

-377,949,863
SG&A

-1,101,819,938
Total Operating Expenses

-1,479,769,801



Operating Income

3,644,974,098



Other Income

50,000,000



Income before Tax Provision

3,694,974,098



Provision For income Taxes - 30%

-1,108,492,229



Net Income

2,586,481,869



Diluted Shares

924,000,000



eps

2.80

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