12 Quarters of Mac, iPhone and iPod Unit Sales
As an independent analyst I rely heavily on historical data in developing estimates of Apple's future performance. In an October blog post titled Apple's FY2010: A Retrospective I looked at the revenue contributions of each of the company's major product lines.
Today I'm publishing in table and graph form the unit sales for the Mac, iPhone and iPod product lines for the most recent twelve fiscal quarters, from FQ1 2008 through FQ4 2010. The numbers are published with little need for analysis. The graphs are each worth 1,000 words.
I will be updating my CY 2011 AAPL Price Target and Price Forecasts following the release of FQ1 2011 results on January 18th. In the meantime, the table data and graphs in this blog post illustrate Apple's foundation for continuing growth. In FY 2011 (ending in September), I expect Apple to report over $100 billion in revenue and earnings per share at or above $25. Apple's foundation for strong revenue and earnings growth isn't built on any one product line. Although the Apple iPhone and the Apple iPad will generated more than 50% of the company's revenue this fiscal year, each of the company's major revenue segments materially impact overall results.
The Macintosh
While much attention has been placed on the Apple iPhone and Apple iPad, the Macintosh line of personal computers continues to contribute heavily to the company's overall results. In FY2010 the Macintosh line represented 27% of the company's reported revenue and in the fiscal year unit sales rose 31%. In FY2011 I expect the Mac's strong unit sales growth to continue and for the line to represent roughly 20% of the company's reported revenue for the fiscal year.
Unit Sales | Mac | Sequential | YOY | ||
FQ1 ’08 | 2,319 | 7% | 44% | ||
FQ2 ’08 | 2,289 | -1% | 51% | ||
FQ3 ’08 | 2,496 | 9% | 41% | ||
FQ4 ’08 | 2,611 | 5% | 21% | ||
FQ1 ’09 | 2,524 | -3.33% | 8.84% | ||
FQ2 ’09 | 2,216 | -12.20% | -3.19% | ||
FQ3 ’09 | 2,603 | 17.46% | 4.29% | ||
FQ4 ’09 | 3,053 | 17.29% | 16.93% | ||
FQ1 ’10 | 3,362 | 10.12% | 33.20% | ||
FQ2 '10 | 2,943 | -12.46% | 32.81% | ||
FQ3 ’10 | 3,472 | 17.97% | 33.38% | ||
FQ4 '10 | 3,885 | 11.90% | 27.25% |
The Apple iPhone
Today, the Apple iPhone is the company's flagship product. The emergence of the Apple iPad in the second half of FY2010 has added a new dimension to Apple's continuing growth story, but the iPhone is the company's undisputed revenue growth leader. In FY2010 the iPhone represented almost 40% of the company's reported revenue and the 91% rise in unit sales propelled the 67% rise in the company's earnings per share. In FY2011 I expect the iPhone to represent roughly 45% of the company's reported revenue and fuel record rates of revenue and earnings growth this fiscal year while Apple iPad unit sales gain critical mass.
Unit Sales | iPhone | Sequential | YOY | ||
FQ1 ’08 | 2,315 | 107% | - | ||
FQ2 ’08 | 1,703 | -26% | - | ||
FQ3 ’08 | 717 | -58% | 166% | ||
FQ4 ’08 | 6,892 | 861% | 516% | ||
FQ1 ’09 | 4,363 | -36.69% | 88.47% | ||
FQ2 ’09 | 3,793 | -13.06% | 122.72% | ||
FQ3 ’09 | 5,208 | 37.31% | 626.36% | ||
FQ4 ’09 | 7,367 | 41.46% | 6.89% | ||
FQ1 ’10 | 8,737 | 18.60% | 100.25% | ||
FQ2 '10 | 8,752 | 0.17% | 130.74% | ||
FQ3 ’10 | 8,398 | -4.04% | 61.25% | ||
FQ4 '10 | 14,102 | 67.92% | 91.42% |
The Apple iPod Line
The Apple iPod line of digital music players was Apple's revenue and earnings growth generator during the Mac's transition to the Intel platform and prior to the release of the Apple iPhone. Following release of the Apple iPhone in 2007, iPod unit sales growth essentially stalled and since the middle of FY2009 iPod unit sales have been in a phase of negative growth. This is to be expected because all iPhones have iPod functionality. In FY2010 the iPod line represented about 8% of Apple's reported revenue. In FY2011 I expect the iPod line to represent about 7% of reported revenue with the iPod touch figuring prominently in the line's overall unit sales performance.
Unit Sales | iPod | Sequential | YOY | ||
FQ1 ’08 | 22,121 | 117% | 5% | ||
FQ2 ’08 | 10,644 | -52% | 1% | ||
FQ3 ’08 | 11,011 | 3% | 12% | ||
FQ4 ’08 | 11,052 | 0.37% | 8% | ||
FQ1 ’09 | 22,727 | 105.64% | 2.74% | ||
FQ2 ’09 | 11,013 | -51.54% | 3.47% | ||
FQ3 ’09 | 10,215 | -7.25% | -7.23% | ||
FQ4 ’09 | 10,177 | -0.37% | -7.92% | ||
FQ1 ’10 | 20,970 | 106.05% | -7.73% | ||
FQ2 '10 | 10,885 | -48.09% | -1.16% | ||
FQ3 ’10 | 9,406 | -13.59% | -7.92% | ||
FQ4 '10 | 9,051 | -3.77% | -11.06% |
Conclusion
The past few years of Apple's history have been marked by a dynamic mix of revenue sources. Although most investors and tech journalists are fixated on the Apple iPhone and iPad, the Mac and iPod lines combined will contribute more than 25% to Apple's reported revenue in FY2011 and the Mac's continued unit sales growth should not be overlooked. The Apple iPod line is in a phase of negative unit sales growth as the Apple iPhone supplants the need for a dedicated digital music player. It's not that the iPod per se is going away, it's being subsumed by other Apple handheld products. The iPod touch, an iOS-based product, is the singular standout in the current iPod line.
For more information on Apple's recent rates of revenue and earnings growth, please see my December blog post titled Apple's Starling Rates of Growth: A Five-year Overview.
Robert Paul Leitao
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