On April 24th Apple will announce results for the company's 2nd fiscal quarter ended March 31st. To gauge expectations for the March quarter, we asked members of the Braeburn Group, formerly known as the AAPL Independent Analysts, to submit estimates for the company's March quarter performance. The group takes its new name from the braeburn apple, a hybrid cultivar of the popular fruit.
Among the fifteen Braeburn Group members who submitted estimates for the March quarter are Dennis Hildebrand, Navin Nagrani, Patrick Smellie and newcomers Scott Millar and Christian Peel. Collectively these fifteen individuals represent a cross section of the Group's members and come from a variety of professional backgrounds and career interests. Membership in this private group is open to those willing to register and actively participate in the group's lively discussions.
On average Braeburn Group Index participants anticipate the following March quarter unit sales results:
Macs | 4,617,307 | 22.80% | YOY Growth | ||
iPhones | 38,232,733 | 105.03% | YOY Growth | ||
iPads | 13,301,667 | 183.38% | YOY Growth | ||
iPods | 6,844,933 | -24.09% | YOY Growth |
Notes on the Unit Sales Estimates:
Mac Sales: In Apple's 14-week December quarter, Mac unit sales rose 25.74% to 5.198 million units. The average unit sales growth estimate from the Braeburn Group Index participants suggests unit sales growth of 22.80%, on track with the 22.19% unit sales growth Apple reported in in the fiscal year ended last September.
iPhone Unit Sales: On average, the Braeburn Group Index participants expect iPhone unit sales growth of 105% to 38.232 million units. This is below the December quarter unit sales growth pace of 128% and slightly above the FY2011 unit sales growth rate of 99%.
iPad Unit Sales: The introduction of the new iPad in the final month of the March quarter has produced a wide range of unit sales estimate from the Braeburn Group Index analysts. For the quarter, the fifteen participants anticipate on average unit sales of sales of 13.301 million iPads and associated unit sales growth of over 183%.
iPod Unit Sales: On average, the index participants anticipate a nearly 25% decline in year-over-year iPod sales to about 6.845 million units.
On average the Braeburn Group Index participants anticipate the following revenue, expense and eps results:
Revenue | 43,543,517,467 | 76.53% | YOY Growth | |
Gross Margin | 19,450,959,577 | 44.67% | of Revenue | |
OpEx | -3,309,360,667 | 7.60% | of Revenue | |
OI&E | 150,466,667 | |||
Pre-Tax Income | 16,292,065,577 | 37.42% | of Revenue | |
Tax Expense | -4,040,929,363 | 24.80% | Tax Rate | |
Net Income | 12,251,136,214 | 28.14% | of Revenue | |
EPS | 12.99 | 102.97% | YOY Growth |
Notes on the Revenue, Expense and EPS Estimates:
Revenue: The Braeburn Group Index participants are estimating on average revenue growth of 76.5%, slightly above the December quarter revenue growth rate of 73% and above the 67% revenue growth rate in FY2011.
Gross Margin: Participants expect gross margin of 44.67%, in line with the December quarter's gross margin of 44.68%.
Net Income: The average net income estimate of $12.251 billion, or 28.14% of recognized revenue, indicates Index participants expect Apple to nearly match the revenue to net income performance of the December quarter. In FQ1 2012, 28.2% of revenue flowed to the net income line.
EPS: Braeburn Group Index participants expect on average 103% growth in earnings per share to $12.99. As a group, participants expect Apple to report a fully diluted share count of 943.177 million shares, up slightly from the December quarter share tally.
Below the signature line I have posted the individual estimates of the fifteen Braeburn Group Index participants ranked by revenue. We'll know on April 24th which of the Braeburn Group members were closest to the mark on estimating Apple's March quarter results.
Robert Paul Leitao
Disclosure: The author is long Apple shares
Member Name | Revenue | EPS | Mac Units | iPhone Units | iPad Units | iPod Units |
Christian Peel | 47,640,400,000 | 14.85 | 4,700,000 | 42,500,000 | 14,100,000 | 6,100,000 |
Gabriel Dubois | 47,014,000,000 | 15.04 | 4,600,000 | 44,000,000 | 13,000,000 | 6,000,000 |
Robert Paul Leitao | 44,437,000,000 | 13.29 | 4,600,000 | 39,600,000 | 13,500,000 | 6,500,000 |
Mark Beauch | 44,322,636,000 | 13.38 | 4,600,000 | 39,600,000 | 13,600,000 | 7,213,000 |
Luke Kittell | 44,258,000,000 | 12.90 | 4,300,000 | 41,000,000 | 13,500,000 | 6,000,000 |
Dennis Hildebrand | 44,065,000,000 | 13.11 | 4,750,000 | 38,500,000 | 13,750,000 | 7,500,000 |
Gregg Thurman | 44,011,000,000 | 13.11 | 4,700,000 | 35,200,000 | 15,500,000 | 7,500,000 |
Shafiq Shamji | 43,775,000,000 | 12.60 | 4,700,000 | 38,000,000 | 13,800,000 | 6,600,000 |
Patrick Smellie | 43,583,000,000 | 12.89 | 4,787,000 | 34,300,000 | 14,300,000 | 8,115,000 |
Navin Nagrani | 43,317,600,000 | 12.90 | 4,850,000 | 35,000,000 | 14,000,000 | 7,650,000 |
Nabil Kobeissi | 42,346,000,000 | 12.08 | 4,750,000 | 38,000,000 | 13,300,000 | 5,800,000 |
Scott Millar | 42,238,933,000 | 12.11 | 4,422,600 | 37,765,000 | 12,740,000 | 6,461,000 |
Michel Contant | 41,533,193,000 | 12.29 | 4,700,000 | 38,226,000 | 11,735,000 | 7,935,000 |
Alexis Cabot | 40,350,000,000 | 12.56 | 4,300,000 | 37,000,000 | 9,900,000 | 7,200,000 |
Michael Cranston | 40,261,000,000 | 11.72 | 4,500,000 | 34,800,000 | 12,800,000 | 6,100,000 |
Average | 43,543,517,467 | 12.99 | 4,617,307 | 38,232,733 | 13,301,667 | 6,844,933 |
